It would be hard to find anybody who anticipated a possible NATO collapse in 2026. However, it appears that that’s exactly what’s unfolding - that’s the potential black swan.
SOURCE
I’ve been thinking a lot about this Greenland situation, so here are my thoughts;
Even though the author above claimed that no one saw the collapse of NATO coming, that isn’t true. Many months before the 2024 election,a war game designed by a British defense expert concluded with the outcome that NATO would collapse during a 2nd Trump presidency….which means that the UK gov’t must have, atleast, made contingency plans for that eventuality and that none of this is any surprise. Before that, 10months into the Ukraine war, a Russian lawmaker also anticipated internal collapse over the Ukraine issue.
“Neither Russia nor China will have to make any effort,” Slutsky wrote on his Telegram channel. “There is every chance that the alliance will collapse from the inside. Even the authoritative American press is hinting that the United States’ withdrawal from NATO would be the best way to end the Ukrainian conflict.”
And I think that’s the reason driving all this, all the while European elites are acting clueless as to why Trump wants Greenland. It seems to me that plans, to induce a conflagration on the continent/WW3, are about to be set in motion and Trump wants his “spoils of war” before the war has even began. As soon as a shooting war between Russia and Western Europe begins, Greenland will still be valuable real estate for anyone in the region looking for an opportunity to seize it….just as the CIA was free-wheeling in the Maidan Square when Putin seized the chance to annex Crimea. Wars are always transformative for any society and I think this is a balancing act for the Trump admin should the continent become embroiled in a hot war. Would Americans want to be drafted/deployed to fight a war in Europe that could have been stopped if it weren’t for some questionable people?
It is no secret, on the American side in dealing with the Europeans, that some factions in the latter group are hell-bent on Ukraine war continuing even if that means bringing the world to brink of destruction. It is a no-brainer that there are countless groups/individuals who benefit from it all….on both sides of the Atlantic. Here’s Dan Caldwell, a former aide to Pete Hegseth talking about it and “Christian” Mike Pompeo who, seemingly has an insatiable appetite for blood & war, urging that the war continue. He gave the speech just before Russia’s strategic bombers were destroyed.
Given Macron’s stance on Greenland, it seems France might have some lofty ambitions on the European stage;
“The US had reduced its resourcing of the NATO deterrence and defense missions, meaning NATO did not have credible warfighting plans ready to deal with a Russian invasion,” said Grimble. “The whole thing had become dysfunctional. It certainly wasn’t in any position to coherently defend against Russia at the end of the game.”
Yet at the same time, there was a genuine desire to keep NATO alive. “Many NATO members — except for France mainly — thought post-Trump it could be salvageable,” Grimble said. “So it was necessary to keep the US in, keep it together, and rebuild later.”
